Climate-Induced Water Resource Variability and Livelihood Adaptation in Kenya’s Tana Delta

Abstract

The Tana Delta, a vital water-dependent and biodiverse region in Kenya, is increasingly affected by hydro-climatic variability, with significant implications for local livelihoods such as farming, fishing, and pastoralism. This study integrates 30 years of climatic (rainfall and temperature) and remote sensing data (1993–2023) with household surveys (n = 382), focus group discussions (3 FGDs), and key informant interviews (10 KIIs) across the Upper, Middle, and Lower Delta zones to assess spatial and seasonal changes in water resources and livelihood adaptations. Quantitative analyses included linear regression and time-series assessment of rainfall and temperature, while NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) tracked changes in surface water and vegetation. Qualitative data were analyzed thematically using NVivo to identify household adaptation strategies. Results indicate declining rainfall (~8–12%) and rising temperatures (~1.2 °C) over three decades, accompanied by reductions in surface water (~20%) and vegetation greenness (~17%). Zone-specific analysis shows the Middle Delta experienced the highest water stress, while the Upper Delta remained relatively stable. These hydro-climatic changes have negatively impacted crop yields, fish stocks, and pasture quality. Households have adapted through livelihood diversification into petty trade, casual labor, charcoal production, and small businesses, but these strategies only partially mitigate food insecurity, with limited institutional support further constraining effective adaptation. The findings underscore the urgent need for integrated water resource management, climate-resilient infrastructure, and targeted adaptation strategies to enhance livelihood resilience and food security in deltaic regions facing climate stress. This study provides one of the first comprehensive assessments linking long-term hydro-climatic trends with household-level adaptation in the Tana Delta.