Climate Change and Trends in Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco México (1961-2023)

Abstract

This study analyzes long-term climate change trends in the municipality of Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, Mexico, focusing on temperature and precipitation over the period 1961–2023. Using ERA5-Land reanalysis data with a 9 km spatial resolution, validated and adjusted with records from nine CONAGUA meteorological stations, the research examines changes between two climatological periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2023). Descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and climate classification following García’s adaptation of the Köppen system were applied to identify climatic transformations and their potential environmental and socio-economic implications. Results indicate a consistent increase in both temperature and precipitation. Average annual temperature shows a positive trend of approximately 0.017 °C per year, while average annual precipitation increased between 69 and 146 mm over the last 30 years, with a long-term trend of 3.27 mm per year. Rainfall remains concentrated in summer months, but recent decades exhibit higher accumulated precipitation, particularly from June to October, and drier winters in some localities. Temperature increases are moderate (generally below 1 °C per month) but persistent across all months. These changes have led to shifts in local climate classifications, generally toward warmer and more sub-humid conditions, with reduced winter rainfall in urban Autlán and Corcovado, and increased summer and winter precipitation in areas such as El Chante and the Sierra de Manantlán. The study discusses implications for agriculture, water availability, forest fire risk, and ecosystem vulnerability. The conclusion is that localized climate analyses are essential for effective adaptation planning. They recommend improved water management, adoption of efficient irrigation technologies, agroforestry and polyculture practices, reforestation, fire prevention strategies, and environmental education to mitigate climate change impacts and strengthen regional resilience.