Cereal Production and Undernourishment: A Global Correlation Analysis

Abstract

Background: Food security remains a major global challenge despite advances in agricultural productivity, with cereals like rice, wheat, and maize being central to global diets. While higher cereal yields can improve food availability, undernourishment persists due to issues like unequal distribution, poverty, and limited access to food. Aims: To examine the relationship between cereal production and undernourishment at the global level during the period 2000–2022 and to assess whether higher agricultural productivity contributes to improved food security and reduced hunger. Study Design: The study adopted a quantitative analytical research design using secondary data. Place and Duration of Study: The study was conducted using global-level data collected from international food and agricultural databases covering the period from 2000 to 2022. Methodology: Secondary data on cereal yield (kg/ha) and prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) were collected from international databases. Cereal yield was considered as an indicator of agricultural productivity and food availability, while undernourishment represented nutritional insecurity. Descriptive statistics were employed to summarise trends and variations in the data. Pearson correlation analysis was used to determine the direction and strength of the relationship between cereal production and undernourishment. In addition, a simple Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model was applied to evaluate the effect of cereal yield on undernourishment levels across countries during the study period. Results: The findings revealed a negative association between cereal yield and undernourishment from 2000–2022. Countries with higher cereal productivity generally experienced lower levels of hunger and nutritional insecurity. Pearson correlation analysis indicated an inverse relationship between the variables, suggesting that improvements in cereal production are associated with reductions in undernourishment. OLS regression results further confirmed that increases in cereal yield contributed significantly to lowering undernourishment levels. However, differences among countries indicated that factors such as food accessibility, income levels, infrastructure, and distribution systems also influence nutrition outcomes. Conclusion: The study concludes that increasing cereal productivity plays an important role in improving food security and reducing global hunger. The findings emphasise the need for sustainable agricultural development, efficient food systems, and equitable access to food resources to achieve long-term nutrition security.