Assessing Changes in the Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Cameroon

Abstract

Aim: The purpose of this work is to assess changes that occur on COVID-19 infection in Cameroon since the start of the epidemic. Study Design: We use a data-based analysis on longitudinal data of reported COVID-19 cases in Cameroon. Place and Duration: The data for the study were obtained from the reports of confirmed COVID-19 cases from an official website between March 7, 2020 to September 29, 2021. Methodology: A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) model for the contagion was used to describe the cumulated cases of COVID-19 during different phases of the epidemic that correlated with highest spikes. The approach features several aspects: one is that model parameters can be time-varying, allowing us to capture possible changes of the epidemic behaviour, due for example to containment measures enforced by authorities or modifications of the epidemic characteristics, country events, and COVID-19 vaccine introduction; the second aspect is that the model accounts for a social distancing parameter. The time-varying parameters was handled using a phase-to-phase modelling in which initial parameters were the number of susceptible individuals at the end of each phase. In addition, daily incidence data were used to estimate daily reproduction number. Secondly, we used an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach to analyse the dynamic of the effective reproduction number R and forecast the new number of infected contacts. Results: There was less than 54% compliance of social distancing during all phases. The reproduction number was above 1 during each phase of the analysis. As of September 2021, it was 2.43 suggesting a constant increase of infection.   Time-series of the reproduction number was unseasonal and stationary. Forecasting of R gave a value of more than 2, suggesting a continued rise in the number of infected cases in the Country in the next coming months. Conclusion: It is uncertain when the pandemic will last in the country. While social distancing is in decrease, prevention through vaccination is an option to reach more people and stop the propagation of the disease.