Assessment of Seasonal Rainfall Trends and Their Effects on Rice Production in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India

Abstract

Monsoonal rainfall variability is a critical determinant of agricultural productivity in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, where farming systems are predominantly rain-dependent. This study evaluates long-term variability and trends in seasonal and annual rainfall and examines their influence on rice productivity across the districts of Jaunpur over a 27-year period (1997–2023). A retrospective agro-climatic assessment was conducted using historical rainfall records obtained from the India Meteorological Department and Banaras Hindu University, along with district-level agricultural production statistics. Monthly and annual rainfall data were analysed with particular emphasis on the southwest monsoon season (June-September), the principal contributor to regional water availability. Statistical techniques, including linear regression, the Mann-Kendall trend test and Pearson correlation analysis were applied to detect rainfall trends and quantify relationships between monsoonal rainfall and crop yields. Results indicate significant interannual variability in rainfall with a marginal upward tendency in annual totals but no statistically significant long-term trend. Monsoon rainfall remained relatively stable in Jaunpur; however, episodic extreme events underscored increasing climatic risk. A moderate positive correlation (r = 0.447) was observed between monsoonal rainfall and rice production, suggesting that rainfall variability significantly influences yield outcomes, although agronomic management practices, soil characteristics and technological inputs also contribute. The findings confirm that agriculture in Eastern Uttar Pradesh remains highly sensitive to monsoonal dynamics. The increasing frequency of droughts and flood events poses substantial threats to agrarian sustainability. Strengthening adaptive strategies, including improved water resource management and climate-resilient cropping systems, is essential to enhance regional food security and sustain rural livelihoods under evolving climatic conditions.