Assessment of Climatic Trends and Change Points in the Western Agro-climatic Zone of Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract

This study examines the temporal variability, trend, and change point behaviour of key climatic parameters including annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall, number of rainy days, and one day maximum rainfall in the Western Agro-climatic Zone of Madhya Pradesh, India, for the period of 1984 to 2023. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to identify trends, while Pettitt and Worsley tests were used for detecting change points. The analysis revealed a statistically significant decreasing trend in annual rainfall with a Sen’s slope value of 2.13 mm per year at a significance level of p less than 0.05, indicating a gradual reduction in long term precipitation. Monsoon rainfall also showed a declining trend of 1.85 mm per year, with a major change point observed around the year 2005. The number of rainy days exhibited a decreasing rate of 0.32 days per year, suggesting fewer rainfall occurrences after 2005. In contrast, the one-day maximum rainfall showed an increasing trend of 1.12 mm per year, which reflects the growing intensity of short- duration rainfall events. These results indicate that the region is experiencing reduced rainfall duration but increasing rainfall intensity, which may lead to higher hydrological stress and agricultural challenges. The year 2005 was identified as a significant climatic transition period, marking a shift in the precipitation regime of the Western Agro-climatic Zone of Madhya Pradesh. The findings of this study are valuable for developing adaptive water resource management and climate resilience strategies for the region.