Assessing the Role of Small Millets in Assam's Agrifood System, India: A Comparative Analysis with Major Crops

Abstract

The agrifood system in Assam is confronted with intertwined challenges including climate change, malnutrition, resource constraints, and unsustainable cropping patterns. In this context, small millets are nutritious, drought-resistant, and low-input crops offering promising solutions, particularly for ecologically fragile regions like Assam. The study is primarily based on the secondary data collected from published sources like Economic Survey of Assam, Statistical Hand Book Assam, and Agricultural Statistics at a Glance etc. The study performs a comparative analysis of small millets vis-à-vis major crop groups (rice, pulses, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables) using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Instability Analysis (Coefficient of Variation), Markov Chain Analysis and Terms of Trade (yield and output).A continuous decline in area under both small millets and rice was observed, with small millets showing greater instability and lowest area retention (19 percent) as per Markov analysis when compared to Kharif and Rabi rice that  retained 86 percent and 78 percent of their respective areas, reflecting farmers' strong preference for rice. The Terms of Trade analysis showed that small millets suffer from unfavourable trade terms compared to rice, pulses, and fruits and vegetables, though they perform slightly better than oilseeds in yield-based comparisons.