Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Land Cover Changes and Rainfall Trends in the Ken River Basin, India

Abstract

The aim of this research was to assess the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes and predict the historical and future trends in rainfall for the Ken River Basin in India. The study used Landsat imagery of 2006 and 2022 to categorize LULC into six classes: Agriculture, Forest, Open Forest, Built-up Land, Bare Ground, and Water Body, employing on-screen visual interpretation. LULC changes were then analyzed by comparing both years classified image, and a change matrix was created. Future rainfall predictions were based on daily bias-corrected datasets from the INMCM5 climate model under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 (SSP585), which represents a scenario of high fossil fuel development. The results revealed that, among the six land use classes, forests and agriculture were the predominant land cover types, comprising 50.32% and 25.89%, respectively, in 2006. However, by 2022, the agricultural land increased to 58.22%, while the forest area significantly declined to only 7.79%. The change matrix analysis indicated that the majority of forested land had been converted into open forests, which raises concerns for the region's ecological stability. In terms of rainfall, historical data from 1982 to 2018 showed a decreasing trend, with a Sen slope value of -4.9493 mm/year. In contrast, future rainfall predictions for the period 2019-2055 indicated an increasing trend, with a Sen slope value of 7.1491 mm/year. The combined loss of forest land and the anticipated increase in rainfall presents significant challenges for the study area, emphasizing the need for integrated land and water management strategies. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for planners and policymakers, offering a framework for future conservation efforts in similar basins.