Skip to content
Research Article Open access CC BY 4.0

Analysis of the Simulation Results of Three Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Cycle Models

Antero Ollila

Physical Science International Journal · pp. 1–19 · Published 20 Jan 2020

10.9734/psij/2019/v23i430168

Abstract

The CO2 (carbon dioxide) circulation models referred by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) show that the increase of atmospheric CO2 by 240 GtC (Gigatonnes of carbon) from 1750 to 2011 is totally anthropogenic in nature, which corresponds to the permille value of about -12.5‰, but the observed value is only -8.3‰. The author’s improved 1DAOBM-3 CO2 circulation model shows that the anthropogenic CO2 amount in 2011 is only 73 GtC, satisfying the observed atmospheric permille values from 1750 to 2017. The CO2 circulation between the ocean and the atmosphere has increased the amount of atmospheric CO2 by natural CO2 197 GtC from the ocean, and this explains why the net uptake rate is only 1.9 GtC yr-1. Together with the anthropogenic amount of 73 GtC, the total increase is 270 GtC by 2017, corresponding to the observed atmospheric CO2 concentration. The simulations for 1000 GtC emissions by 2100 have been carried out by three models, including 1DAOBM-3, Bern2.5CC, and the mean model of 15 circulation models (called Joos 2013). The residence time of 1DAOBM-3 is 16 years for anthropogenic CO2 impulse, the same as for the radiocarbon decay time. The decay time of 1DAOBM-3 for the impulse function is about 600 years meaning the residence time of about 150 years only. These values are much shorter than the residence times of two other models, which show that 25±9‰ of any anthropogenic CO2 is still found in the atmosphere after 1,000 years. The reasons have been analyzed. The advantage of 1DAOBM-3 over the other models is that its results are in line with the oceanic and atmospheric observations from 1750 to 2017 but the future simulations include uncertainties due to ocean and biosphere uptake rate models.

Climate change lifetime of atmospheric CO2 CO2 cycle models climate models.

References (26)

  1. 1 A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests [DOI]
  2. 2 Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model [DOI]
  3. 3 Greening of the Earth and its drivers [DOI]
  4. 4 Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks [DOI]
  5. 5 Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics [DOI]
  6. 6 Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics [DOI]
  7. 7 Reconstruction of the history of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations in the ocean [DOI]
  8. 8 Transport and storage of CO2 in the ocean ??an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model [DOI]
  9. 9 Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2 [DOI]
  10. 10 Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO 2 [DOI]
  11. 11 A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra‐tropical northern hemisphere during the last two millennia [DOI]
  12. 12 Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake [DOI]
  13. 13 The extent of forest in dryland biomes [DOI]
  14. 14 The millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 [DOI]
  15. 15 Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle [DOI]
  16. 16 Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in carbon isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis [DOI]
  17. 17 Carbon dioxide equilibria and their applications [DOI]
  18. 18 Estimation of Anthropogenic CO2 Inventories in the Ocean [DOI]
  19. 19 Exchanges of Atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 with the Terrestrial Biosphere and Oceans from 1978 to 2000. I. Global Aspects
  20. 20 Genomic basis for stimulated respiration by plants growing under elevated carbon dioxide [DOI]
  21. 21 Changing controls on oceanic radiocarbon: New insights on shallow‐to‐deep ocean exchange and anthropogenic CO2 uptake [DOI]
  22. 22 Aquatic chemistry: an introduction emphasizing chemical equilibria in natural waters [DOI]
  23. 23 Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity [DOI]
  24. 24 An Energetic Perspective on United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Droughts [DOI]
  25. 25 Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific [DOI]
  26. 26 Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Amounts and Fluxes between the Atmosphere, the Ocean, and the Biosphere [DOI]

Cited by 3

Reply on RC1

Z. George Xue · 2022

Major Portion of the Increased Atmospheric Concentration of Carbon Dioxide Emitted by the Oceans

Jyrki Kauppinen, Pekka Malmi · International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences · 2025

Reply on RC2

Z. George Xue · 2022

Article metrics

Real usage data collected on this platform.

11

Page views

0

PDF downloads

0

Outbound clicks

3

Citations

Views over time

Views by country

Approximate, from request IP at view time — not citizenship or institution. Countries with fewer than 5 views are grouped as "Other".

Traffic sources

Referring site, by host.

Views and downloads exclude known bots/crawlers. Citations combines this platform's own DOI-resolved index with each external source's own reported total — see Cited by above for individually listed citing works. Last refreshed 0 seconds ago.