Analysis of Growth and Instability in Marine Fisheries Production: Evidence from India and Andhra Pradesh

Abstract

Marine fish production in India has shown moderate growth, largely driven by mechanization, improved fishing technologies, expansion of fishing fleets and improved mari-culture techniques, although it remains subject to fluctuations due to seasonal variations, overexploitation of resources, and climatic factors. Marine shrimp, on the other hand, has emerged as a high-value export commodity, with India becoming one of the leading exporters globally; however, its production is relatively more volatile due to disease outbreaks, environmental changes, and market price fluctuations. This study examines the growth and instability in the production of marine fish and shrimp in India and Andhra Pradesh over the period from 1995–96 to 2024–25, employing the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Cuddy–Della Valle Index (CDVI). To examine the trends in production of marine fish and shrimp at India level and Andhra Pradesh level, Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) was worked out by using log-linear model. Instability in the production and export quantity and value of marine products was measured using the Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI). The findings revealed that marine fish production exhibited a statistically significant growth of 1.23 per cent at the national level and a higher rate of 5.51 per cent in Andhra Pradesh. In contrast, marine shrimp production did not register significant growth in India, whereas in Andhra Pradesh the marine shrimp production recorded a notable growth rate of 8.20 per cent during the study period. With respect to instability, marine shrimp production showed highest variability, with CDVI of 23.36 per cent in Andhra Pradesh and 13.25 per cent in India. This was followed by marine fish production, which exhibited instability levels of 11.71 per cent in Andhra Pradesh and 5.81 per cent in India. The findings underscore the need for sustainable resource management, climate-resilient practices, and risk mitigation strategies, particularly in high-value shrimp production systems, to ensure long-term stability and growth of the fisheries sector.