Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Agriculture in Bhutan

Abstract

The effects of climate change on agriculture are particularly noticeable due to the worldwide phenomenon of global warming. Similarly, Bhutan is also experiencing the repercussions of climate change on its agricultural sector and the livelihoods of its people. Although some researchers conducted research on climate change vulnerability on agriculture in Bhutan based on their research area and problem definition, climate change effects on paddy, maize, chilli, and cardamom in five districts (Dagana, Monger, Pemagatshel, Zhemgang, and Trongsa) have been least explored and limited. Therefore, this paper, conducted in five districts of Bhutan, analyses the trends of paddy, maize, chilli, and cardamom and the vulnerability of this variable under extreme weather. Apart from this, the effects of climate change were analyzed by comparing trends of temperature and precipitation (1901–2021). The study employed a non-probability sampling technique to conduct research and used ARIMA model to find the trends of temperature and precipitation. The results showed that there is a negative relationship as well as a positive relationship between climate change and agriculture production in the study area. Further, the study area is under threat of extreme weather, especially drought, flash flooding, windstorms, and hailstones. Additionally, results revealed that, in next decade, there is a threat of climate change, which results in a more rapid decline in paddy and maize production in all five districts. Climate adaptation policies such as climate smart agriculture (CSA) and climate smart villages (CSV) must be promoted in villages to reduce the long-term vulnerability of agriculture to climate change.