An Assessment of the Temporal Dynamics of Tomato Cultivation in India and Chhattisgarh: A Growth and Instability Analysis

Abstract

Tomato is one of the most important commercial vegetable crops in India, contributing significantly to farmers' income, nutritional security, and the horticultural economy. Understanding its long-term growth dynamics is essential for designing appropriate production and marketing policies. The present study assessed the temporal dynamics of tomato cultivation in India and Chhattisgarh by analysing growth and instability in area, production, and productivity during 2004–05 to 2024–25. Secondary data were collected from the National Horticulture Board and the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Chhattisgarh. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR), coefficient of variation (CV), Cuddy–Della Valle instability index (CDVI), and coefficient of determination (R²) were employed to examine growth performance and production instability across the overall period and four subperiods. The results revealed significant positive growth in tomato cultivation in both India and Chhattisgarh. At the national level, area, production, and productivity recorded statistically significant CAGR values of 2.17, 4.44, and 2.22 per cent per annum, respectively. Chhattisgarh exhibited comparatively higher growth, with corresponding CAGR values of 4.08, 7.54, and 3.32 per cent, reflecting the rapid commercialisation of tomato cultivation in the state. However, Chhattisgarh also experienced relatively greater instability than the national average, particularly during the initial phase of the study period. The findings indicate that, while expansion in cultivated area contributed to production growth, improvements in productivity have increasingly become a major driver of tomato production. The study emphasises the need for productivity-enhancing technologies, efficient irrigation, quality planting material, balanced nutrient management, improved post-harvest infrastructure, and effective market support mechanisms to ensure stable and sustainable growth of the tomato sector in India and Chhattisgarh.