An Analysis of Fish Production in India through ARIMA Model

Abstract

India has a vast and diverse fisheries sector that plays a vital role in the country’s economy. This study aimed to develop regression (curve estimation) and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) models for India’s marine, inland, and total fish production data from 1970–71 to 2022–23. The models were then used to forecast fish production over 10 years, from 2020-21 to 2029-30. This paper analyzes the production of marine fish, inland fish, and their combined output in India to predict future production using linear regression and the ARIMA model. The ARIMA model provides better results for both inland and total production, whereas the regression model predicts a higher production level for marine fish. The projections for all types of fish production from 2023-24 to 2032-33 indicate a steady increase in India's fish production. The carbon footprints associated with different fishing methods and various maritime states were also compared. Climate change clearly impacts the marine fisheries industry. The South-West region has the highest total fish catch and the highest total Carbon Dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions. The carbon footprints in Kerala (1.94), Andhra Pradesh (1.87), Odisha (1.87), Pondicherry (1.73), and West Bengal (1.73) are notably high for mechanized marine fishing. Conversely, the carbon footprints are relatively lower in highly productive states such as Gujarat (1.16) and Maharashtra (1.3).