Advances and Emerging Frontiers in Extended Range Weather Forecasting for Indian Agriculture

Abstract

The prediction of weather is crucial for both science and society. Extended-range weather forecasting (ERWF) passages the gap between medium-range and seasonal forecasts, providing insights into weather conditions over 10 to 30 days. ERWF is remarkably important for agriculture, energy, and public health sectors. In agriculture, it supports timely decisions on irrigation, input use, and pest and disease management. They also aid energy demand planning, improve public-health preparedness for heat waves and weather-related disease risks. Present review highlights the recent research achievements and advancements in ERWF, with a focus on improving the predictability of Indian monsoon events at the subdivisional level beyond the medium range. Incorporating ERWF products into crop models enhances the accuracy of crop yield predictions and supports informed decision-making for climate risk management. Forecasting monsoon breaks two to four weeks in advance facilitates tactical and strategic planning, enabling timely adjustments and providing farmers with actionable weather outlooks.