A Study on Growth and Trend Analysis of Mustard Production in Rajasthan, India

Abstract

Mustard is one of the most important oilseed crops in India, with Rajasthan being the leading producer due to its favourable agro-climatic conditions and extensive cultivation area. This study analyses the trend, growth, and sources of growth in the area, production, and productivity of mustard in Rajasthan over a period of 20 years (2001–02 to 2021–22) using secondary time-series data. Relative change analysis, linear trend estimation, growth rates, and a decomposition model were employed to assess the dynamics of mustard production. The findings reveal substantial increases in area (49%), production (128%), and productivity (53%) from the base period to the current period, with production showing the highest relative change. Trend analysis indicates significant positive growth in area (0.26%), production (2.62%), and productivity (2.51%) per annum. Decomposition analysis shows that yield effect (41.05%) contributed the most to output growth, followed by area effect (38.69%) and interaction effect (20.25%), highlighting the pivotal role of technological advancements and improved cultivation practices in boosting production. Overall, the study underscores that yield enhancement rather than area expansion has been the major driver of mustard production growth in Rajasthan, offering valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and farmers in planning future strategies for sustainable oilseed development.