A Novel and Effective Multi-Model-Based Default Risk Analysis and Prediction in the Business Sector

Abstract

The precise evaluation of credit risk continues to be a crucial component of prudent decision-making and risk management in the banking and lending industries in the ever-changing financial landscape of today. While traditional methods of credit risk analysis, which frequently depend on isolated modelling methodologies, have proven effective, they might not be able to fully represent the complexity of today's financial settings. The need for methods that can provide increased predictive power and adaptability grows as markets change and become more complicated. To address this problem, ensemble approaches have surfaced as a strong contender, offering a framework that combines the predictive power of several models into a coherent whole. This study uses a range of machine learning algorithms, including XGBoost, CatBoost, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, KNN, and Random Forest, to explore the potential in the field of credit risk analysis. By leveraging the unique properties of many algorithms within an ensemble framework, the objective is to improve forecast accuracy while also strengthening the robustness and adaptability of default risk assessment approaches. This introduction discusses how ensemble approaches can revolutionize credit risk analysis and establish the groundwork for a full discussion of them. It also offers insights into practical implementation considerations and empirical validations.