Modelling the Impact of an Effective Mass Media Awareness Campaigns on the Spread of HPV Infections

Abstract

Cancer is a menace to public health globally. Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted virus and has been linked to several cancers such as cervical cancer, anal cancer, oropharyngeal cancer and neck cancer. In this research a mathematical model based on a system of ordinary differential equations is formulated to study the impact of an effective mass media awareness campaigns on the spread of HPV infections under vaccination in Kenya. The basic reproduction number is computed using the next generation matrix method. The equilibrium points of the model are determined and their stability investigated. The results of stability analysis show that the HPV free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when  Ro < 1 and the endemic equilibrium point existed if Ro < 1. We used the center manifold theory to investigate the nature of bifurcation. The investigation identified that the bifurcation parameter θ changes from negative to positive, changes its stability from stable to unstable thus a negative unstable equilibrium becomes positive and locally asymptotically stable. Sensitivity analysis shows that the prevalence of HPV infection can be reduced by reducing the contact rate between the susceptibles and infected β, increasing the rate of treatment  \(\tau\) 1  and increasing vaccination rate  \(\gamma\) . Moreover, the relapse from the susceptible aware and infected aware to susceptible and infected classes respectively that is \(\tau\) 2 and \(\tau\) 3 respectively increase the spread of HPV in the community. The results from the numerical simulations validated the fact that an effective mass media awareness campaigns brought the numbers of HPV infections to equilibrium.