Human Capital Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the impact of human capital development on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. Annual time series data on the dependent variable, real gross domestic product growth rate (RGDPG), alongside the independent variables, including government expenditure on education, government expenditure on health as well as gross fixed capital formation were sourced and collected from Central Bank of Nigeria [1] Statistical Bulletin, while the annual time series data on primary, secondary and tertiary school enrolments were collected from UNESCO [2] Institute for Statistics. The series were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test. The result showed a mix of variables integrated of order one, I(1) and of order zero, I(0). The Bounds test for cointegration showed the existence of long run relationship amongst the variables as the F-statistic value of approximately 3.43 was found to be higher than the 5% upper bounds value of 3.28. The results of the ARDL method of analysis revealed that in the long run, government expenditure on education and tertiary school enrolment had insignificant negative impact on economic growth while government expenditure on health, gross fixed capital formation, primary and secondary school enrolments had insignificant positive impacts on economic growth. On the other hand, in the short run, while government expenditure on education exhibited significant negative impact on economic growth, government expenditure on health had significant positive impact on economic growth. Gross fixed capital formation impacted positively on economic growth, primary school enrolment had negative impact while secondary and tertiary enrolments had positive impact on economic growth. Consequently, the study recommended among others that the government should set incremental annual targets expenditure on health aimed at achieving the Abuja agreement of 15% of total public expenditure in the health sector. This will create multiplier effect in the long run and serve as a boost to economic growth in the country.