Hotspot Analysis of Structure Fires in Urban Agglomeration: A Case Study of Hyderabad City, Telangana, India

Abstract

Urban structural fires pose a significant threat to life, property, and urban sustainability, particularly in rapidly growing cities like Hyderabad, India. These fires are often exacerbated by factors such as high population density, unplanned development, aging infrastructure, and inadequate fire safety regulations. Additionally, the increasing demand for electricity, mixed land use, and seasonal climatic variations contribute to heightened fire risks. This study assesses the spatial and temporal distribution of urban fire incidents within the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) region from 2017 to 2024. Fire incidents were aggregated using a 50-meter threshold, and spatial autocorrelation analysis confirmed that these incidents are significantly clustered. Hotspot analysis using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic yielded GiZ-scores ranging from –3.62 to 6.65. This allowed for the delineation of fire risk zones by integrating a continuous fire risk surface—generated through Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation—with census ward boundaries using zonal statistics. From 2017 to 2024, there have been a total of 4406 structural fires in the GHMC region. The temporal analysis indicates that fire incidents peak in late winter and early summer, specifically in March and April, accounting for 12 to 12.5% of annual cases. In contrast, fire incidents decline during the monsoon months, with only 4.8 to 6.2% of cases occurring during this period. Furthermore, the analysis of fire causation indicates that careless smoking (41.9%) and electrical faults (39.1%) are the primary drivers of these events. An evaluation of fire station responses, based on State Fire Advisory Committee guidelines, shows that while 52.4% of incidents occur within the Immediate Response Zone (up to 1.8 km), 18.7% of the GHMC area falls within Delayed Response Zones (beyond 5 km), suggesting critical gaps in emergency coverage. The Central, North, and South Zones exhibit the highest concentrations of incidents, with 35 wards classified as very high risk, collectively housing approximately 1.3 million residents with population densities exceeding 17,000 people per sq km. These findings underscore the need for strategic interventions, such as repositioning or adding fire stations in high-risk areas, enhancing electrical safety protocols, implementing targeted public awareness campaigns, and adopting climate-responsive urban planning. By integrating geospatial analytics with policy insights, this research provides a replicable framework for improving fire resilience in Hyderabad and similar rapidly urbanizing regions, aligning with Sustainable Development Goal 11 and India’s Smart Cities Mission.