Factors Affecting Wheat Import Trade in Afghanistan: Challenges and Opportunities

Abstract

This study examines economic, demographic, and political factors influencing Afghanistan's wheat import trade from 1996 to 2023 with a focus on agriculture production. Using multiple regression models and international government data, the analysis highlights the impact of conflict, climate change, and economic instability on wheat imports. Despite cultivating 2.7 million hectares, Afghanistan remains import-dependent, particularly on Kazakhstan, India, and Uzbekistan, which supplied $63.1M, $11.9M, and $1.24 M worth of wheat from 2021 to 2023. The Russia–Ukraine war has exacerbated food insecurity by increasing wheat prices, with Afghanistan potentially importing 2–2.5 million metric tonnes of Kazakhstan wheat flour to meet demand. findings indicate a 1% GDP (gross domestic product) growth resulting in a 24.764 metric-tonne rise in wheat imports while adverse weather may reduce autumn wheat yield by 20-30 % The study underscores the need for wheat sector improvement, price stabilisation, and food security policy to enhance agricultural resilience and economic analysis.