Climate Variability and Security Challenges as Determinants of Agricultural Development and Food Sustainability in Niger State, Nigeria

Abstract

Agricultural development and food sustainability in Niger State, Nigeria, are increasingly threatened by the combined effects of climate variability and persistent security challenges. While farmer–herder conflicts are widely regarded as the primary drivers of food insecurity in the region, empirical evidence distinguishing the relative impacts of insecurity and long-term climatic fluctuations remains limited. This study aims to evaluate the relative impacts of security challenges and climate variability on agricultural development and food sustainability in Niger State, Nigeria. It quantifies the effects of long-term climatic fluctuations and insecurity on crop production. This study employed a mixed-methods approach integrating primary and secondary data. Structured questionnaires were administered to 1,000 respondents, including farmers, extension workers, and agricultural stakeholders. Secondary data comprised rainfall, temperature, and humidity records (1971–2024), as well as yield data for eight major crops obtained from the Niger State Agricultural Mechanization Development Authority (NAMDA). Regression and correlation analyses were conducted to assess the relationship between climatic variables and crop production. Findings indicate that banditry (40.2%) and terrorism (20.9%) are the dominant security threats affecting agricultural activities, with food production reduction (34.4%) identified as the principal consequence. However, regression results reveal that climate variability exerts a more systematic influence on crop yields. Maximum temperature increases cotton production (1.6%), whereas minimum temperature reduces it (−0.6%). Rainfall and temperature negatively affect sugarcane yields, while minimum temperature positively influences rice and sorghum production. Soybean and melon production show strong negative sensitivity to rainfall and temperature variability. Correlation analysis confirms the predominantly adverse effects of climatic fluctuations. The study demonstrates that climate variability poses a more consistent and measurable threat to agricultural productivity than insecurity alone. Strengthened dissemination of meteorological forecasts and enhanced extension services are recommended to promote climate-resilient agricultural planning and sustainable food systems.