Technology for Probability Assessment of Elementary Hazard Events

Abstract

The aim of the work is to develop a technology for Basic Events (BE) probability assessment at a given predictive interval, with consideration of the situation at potentially hazardous facility (plant, factory, storage; armory) at the beginning of the predictive interval. With this objective, the following tasks are formulated: 1) Develop a logical basis for BE probability assessment which includes (a) formalization of possible situations, (b) formalization of situation impacts on cumulative distribution function (CDF) of BE, (c) computation of BE probability assessment; 2) Develop technological stages of the BE probability calculation. The computing technology for probability assessment of undesirable events occurring at the elements of potential hazard facilities is proposed. The technology uses the expert knowledge, statistical data and analytical methods. The user’s role is reduced to the setting of predictive interval and formalizing of the situation description. Novelty: The proposed technology enables to use the failure models together with expert knowledge about the situations arisen at potentially-dangerous objects. Practical importance: since the technology reflects a real-life situation at a facility, the prognosis is more reliable.