Prising De Solla Price’s Circumvent

Abstract

This study probed the foundations of the scientometric approach of citation metrics to evaluate research publications. The error made by Derek J. De Solla Price when he made a trivial modification of the contagion of success model is identified. De Solla Price’s Urn model was compared with the real time bibliometric and academic publishing processes. The validity of the assumption that probability of an author being selected for citation is proportional to the number of previous citations the paper already have was mathematically elucidated. The features of the Price’s model do not seem to correlate well when compared with the real time situations in bibliometric and academic publishing process. Except that Derek de Solla Price stated so, it is doubtful that the Price’s model is relevant and useful in real time bibliometric and academic publishing processes.