HIV Spread Mathematical Model for Simulation of UNAIDS Goal to End AIDS in Sudan

Abstract

The present study highlights, HIV spread mathematical model which backing up UNAIDS goal to end AIDS in Sudan. We report our investigation, in mathematical modelling perspective about HIV spread, and suggest some possible measures in order to control the epidemic. UNAIDS goal includes a 90-90-90 target, by 2020, [90% of all people living with HIV (PLHIV) know their status, 90% whose status are known are expected to be under ART, and 90% of PLHIV under ART have viral load suppressed.] Another goal extends the mission to year 2030 in which UNAID aim to end AIDS.  According to UNAIDS, by 2030 UNAIDS want to minimize to at least 90% of both new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths compared to year 2010. In this article, achievement of the goal is possible with appropriate control of the basic reproduction number (R0). When R0 < 1, rate of new HIV infections decreases toward stabilizing disease free equilibrium (DFE).  In contrast, when R0 > 1 the endemic equilibrium stabilizes. We took Sudan as an example in the simulation. According to the model, PLHIV records from 2012 to 2016 in Sudan estimated R0 =1.5012. HIV spread had been growing since 2012. Although all values of R0<1 would lead to stabilize DFE, Although for achieving UNAIDS goal, any  R0  ≤ 0.0620 after 2016 onward is a better estimate to meet UNAIDS goal to end AIDS by 2030 in Sudan.