Calibration of the DSSAT-CERES Wheat Crop Model under Scenarios of Climate Change Adaptation and Biotic Stress

Abstract

A field experiment was conducted during the 2018/2019 wheat growing season in Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate. This is to assess the potential impact of climate change on wheat production under different irrigation treatments using the DSSAT-CERES wheat simulation model and climate change scenarios; to determine the best sowing date to be used as an adaptation strategy under climate change scenarios. The model effectively simulates wheat yield, with a high goodness of fit and d-Stat value, and low root mean square per observation, resulting in an overall goodness of fit of average 13.8 kg/fed. The model's performance was satisfactory, with high R2 and d-Stat values and low RMSE/obs, with overall values of 0.830, 0.951, and 2.3 mm, respectively for water consumption. The CERES-Wheat model accurately simulates wheat yield and water consumption, allowing us to assess climate change's impact on wheat yield in 2030 and 2040.  The study shows a decrease in solar radiation (SR) by 1.9 and 2.1 MJ/m2/day in 2030 and 2040, while maximum temperature increases by 1.5 and 1.9°C due to climate change, and minimum temperature decreases by 1.8 and 2.3°C in 2030 and 2040. This results in an increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET) by 0.2 and 0.3 mm. The study predicts that season length will shorten in 2030 and 2040 due to temperature increases. In 2030, it will be reduced by 2, 4, and 4 days under different treatments. In 2040, it will be lower, with reductions of 3, 5, and 5 days. The study found that wheat yield losses would be lowest under the first sowing date and irrigation treatment, while the highest reductions were found under the third treatment. Climate change will reduce wheat water consumption due to shorter growing seasons and heat stress, with the lowest reductions occurring in 2030 and 2040 at 8 and 18%, respectively. The highest reductions in wheat yield were observed under the third sowing date and irrigation treatment. We suggest planting wheat in November, using full irrigation to prevent high-yield losses, and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce wheat plant vulnerability to climate change risks.