Long-Term Temperature Trends in the Upper Baitarani Basin, Odisha: Analyzing Regional Climate Variability

Abstract

Aims: The Upper Baitarani Basin is highly susceptible to climate change, with significant consequences for local hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, the region lacks a detailed analysis of long-term temperature trends, which is crucial for understanding the extent of climate variability. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) To analyze long-term trends in Tmin and Tmax over the past 70 years (1952-2022) using statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test and linear regression. (ii) To evaluate the implications of observed temperature trends on the region’s water resources, particularly the Upper Baitarani River Basin's hydrological patterns, considering the potential risks posed by climate change. (iii) To assess the potential impact of temperature variability on agriculture and ecosystems, identifying vulnerable areas and proposing measures for climate adaptation and resilience in these sectors. Study Design: This is a retrospective observational study utilizing historical climate data to assess temperature trends over a 70-year period from 1952 to 2022. Place and Duration of Study: The study was conducted in the Upper Baitarani Basin, with data spanning the years 1952 to 2022. Methodology: The study employs quantitative methods to analyze long-term temperature trends in the Upper Baitarani Basin. Specifically, the Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the statistical significance of temperature trends, while linear regression analysis was applied to quantify the rate of change over time. Results: The analysis revealed a statistically significant warming trend in the Tmin during May for both locations, while Tmax displayed significant increases primarily in the latter half of the year (July through November) at both locations. The trends in Tmin were more variable and less statistically robust compared to Tmax, which showed consistent and significant increases, particularly in the late summer and early autumn months. Conclusion: The findings indicate a significant warming trend in Tmax, especially from July to November, which could have critical implications for the local climate, agriculture, and water resources in the Upper Baitarani Basin. The observed trends underscore the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the potential adverse effects of rising temperatures in this region. Further research incorporating additional climatic variables and longer time series data is recommended to enhance the understanding of regional climate dynamics patients.