Assessment of the Impact of Flood Disasters on Socioeconomic Livelihoods in Nyamagabe District, Rwanda (2010–2025)

Abstract

Aims: To assess the impact of flood disasters on the socioeconomic livelihoods of households in Nyamagabe District, Rwanda, between 2010 and 2025, and to analyse the relationship between flood exposure, government/institutional response, and livelihood outcomes. Study Design: A descriptive-correlational, mixed-methods design combining quantitative household survey data with qualitative key-informant insights. Place and Duration of Study: Nyamagabe District, Southern Province, Rwanda, covering the period 2010–2025. Methodology: A census of 325 respondents was used, comprising 204 officially recorded flood-affected households, 12 district-level land office employees, 17 sector land officers, and 92 cell socioeconomic development officers. Data were collected through structured questionnaires (five-point Likert-scale items), key-informant interviews, focus group discussions, document review, and GIS-based spatial analysis (ArcGIS/QGIS) to map flood-prone zones. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression in SPSS; qualitative data were analysed thematically and triangulated with the quantitative findings. Results: Flood events increased from 3 in 2010 to 10 in 2025; affected households rose from 110 to 204; and damaged cropland expanded from 620 to 3,200 hectares. Most respondents (64.0%) reported severe negative livelihood impacts, with 81.5% experiencing income loss and 85.5% reporting crop destruction. Regression analysis identified flood frequency (β = 0.304) and flood extent (β = 0.320) as the strongest predictors of livelihood deterioration (R² = 0.405, p < 0.001). Early warning systems significantly improved livelihood outcomes, whereas post-flood recovery support and disaster management plans showed no significant effect. Conclusion: Recurrent flooding has substantially eroded household livelihoods in Nyamagabe District over the study period. Strengthening early warning systems, flood-control infrastructure, recovery programmes, and livelihood diversification is recommended to enhance community resilience against recurrent flooding.