Trend Analysis of Wheat Prices and the Influence of Meteorological Factors on Wheat Price in Birbhum District

Abstract

Agricultural price instability remains a major concern for farmers, market participants, and policymakers. This research examines the trends in wheat prices within Birbhum district of West Bengal, alongside the potential effects of meteorological factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity on these price movements. This study is based on weather affects wheat prices, using data from January 2018 to December 2023. Rainfall and minimum temperature strongly change wheat prices, with p-values of 0.028 and 0.015. Maximum temperature matters less, with a p-value of 0.087. All together, weather explains 8.6% of price changes (R² = 0.086), and the adjusted R² is 0.046, other changes due to arrival and policy changes in wheat market. The BDS test (p = 0.001) shows some tricky patterns, and the Mann-Kendall test (p = 2.2e-16) says there’s a clear trend over time. Basically, more rain and cooler nights move wheat prices, but other things do too. This shows weather is important for wheat price fluctuation. As climate change intensifies, understanding such climate-market interactions becomes essential to maintaining food security and stabilizing rural economies. By integrating historical market data with regional weather records, the study seeks to identify meaningful patterns and relationships that shed light on both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends in wheat pricing. The study shows that rainfall and minimum temperature have more impact in the price fluctuation than the other factors. It highlighted the variations in climatic conditions can influence agricultural markets, offering valuable direction for adaptive planning and policy-making. As climate change intensifies, understanding such climate-market interactions becomes essential to maintaining food security and stabilizing rural economies.