Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature in the Kharun Watershed: Implications for Climate and Water Management

Abstract

Rainfall and temperature are critical meteorological variables for understanding climate change and its potential impacts on water resources.  Rainfall and Temperature are the most important for climatic parameters. The result of this study will help to take necessary steps and measures for agricultural production.  This study focuses on analyzing rainfall and temperature trends in the Kharun watershed, Chhattisgarh, using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope (SS) estimator. The analysis covers seasonal (summer, winter, and monsoon) and annual trends across key stations. Results for precipitation trends reveal mixed outcomes. At Dhamtari, a significant increasing trend in summer rainfall (z = 3.21, p < 0.01, Sen's slope = 0.77) was observed, though the annual trend remains insignificant. In Patharidih, summer rainfall also shows a significant upward trend (z = 2.04, p = 0.04), while Raipur exhibits a significant decline in both annual and summer precipitation (z = -1.04, p = 0.03, Sen's slope = -0.27). Temperature trends indicate no significant changes in maximum temperature across most stations, though slight positive trends are observed in summer and monsoon seasons. However, minimum temperature trends show a significant decline during winter at Dhamtari and Raipur (z = -2.12, Sen's slope = -0.04). These findings highlight localized seasonal variability in rainfall and temperature, underlining potential challenges for water resource management and climate adaptation in the region.