Trend Analysis and Change Point Detection of Climatic Parameters in Ambedkar Nagar District of Uttar Pradesh, India

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges confronting humanity today, and its effects can be seen all over the world. The assessment of changes in the long-term weather trend is critical for developing water resource management strategies under climate change scenarios. Long-term trends for annual, monsoon, non-monsoon rainfall, rainy days, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature of Akbarpur, Allapur, Bhiti, Jalalpur, and Tanda stations in Uttar Pradesh's Ambedkar Nagar district were examined in this study. The Mann-Kendall test revealed a non-significant decreasing trend for annual and monsoon rainfall at Akbarpur, Bhiti, and Jalalpur stations with an average rate of 1.64 mm/year whereas, it shows a non-significant increasing trend for annual and monsoon rainfall at the Allapur and Tanda stations with an average rate of 3.168 mm/year. Non-monsoon rainfall showed an in-significant decreasing trend at Allapur and Jalalpur stations with an average rate of 0.415 mm/year, whereas a non-significant increasing trend was shown at Akbarpur, Bhiti, and Tanda stations with an average rate of 0.197 mm/year. Annual rainy days shows non-significant decreasing trend for all stations of Akbarpur district with an average rate of 0.117 day/year (one day decrease with in nine year). It indicates seasonal shift and increased possibility of high intensity rainfall. The impact of extreme events of rainfall on the trend was evaluated on the whole and partial series before and after the break point and it was observed that there was no significant climate change in Ambedkar Nagar district and non-significant changing year of precipitation data series was found in 1995. A significant increasing trend in maximum temperature was observed for all stations in the months of August and December, with an average rate of 0.02 0C per year, while Allapur station also shows a significant increasing trend in maximum temperature in September, with a rate of 0.012 0C per year. However, a significant decreasing trend was observed in minimum temperature in the month of May at Akbarpur, Allapur, Jalalpur, Tanda station with an average rate of 0.027 0C per year. Rainfall and temperature are a principal climatic parameter which regulates the environmental condition of a particular region by directly influencing the agricultural productivity and water resources.