Towards Resilience: A Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Natural Hazards in Uttarakhand, India

Abstract

In the previous decade the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand in India, though located in Seismic Gap of 1905 and 1934 earthquakes, has been spared by major seismic events. The state has however witnessed a number of other major hazards that include 2013 Mandakini – Alaknanda floods that devastated Kedarnath and Rambara, and 2021 avalanche triggered winter season Rishiganga – Dhauliganga floods that devastated hydro-power projects at Rini and Tapoban. In order to help policymakers prioritise resource allocation for disaster risk reduction and building resilience, this study assesses the risk of natural hazards on the constituent districts of the state, and the same is considered as being a function of hazard and vulnerability. The hazard is assessed by the impact of natural incidences in terms of human casualties, infrastructure damage, and livestock loss over the previous decade (2015-2024), while vulnerability is assessed through demographic, economic, and infrastructural indicators. The analysis reveals significant variations in risk levels across districts, with Champawat unexpectedly emerging as the highest-risk district, followed by Chamoli, Uttarkashi, Bageshwar, and Pithoragarh. This finding underscores the importance of comprehensive risk assessments that incorporate both hazard and vulnerability factors, challenging the common perception of certain districts as being relatively safe. The study recommends prioritizing high-risk districts for targeted disaster risk reduction interventions, including investment on infrastructure, capacity building, and community-based preparedness, while also addressing underlying vulnerabilities such as poverty, limited access to services, and economic dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods to enhance resilience and promote sustainable development in Uttarakhand.