Three-month Epidemiological Trend of Covid-19 in Nigeria – Rapid Review

Abstract

Background: Since the confirmation of the index case of Covid-19 on the 27th of February in Nigeria, the spread from Lagos to other parts of the country has been on the climb without a plateau in sight. Objective: To characterize and present epidemiological trends of Covid-19 pandemic in the first three months of index confirmation in Nigeria. Methods: A descriptive epidemiological study involving a review of the first three-month Covid-19 situation reports and updates in Nigeria using primary data was analyzed by Spatio-temporal analysis with categorical variables reported in percentages and numbers. Findings: Retrospective analysis revealed 8344 confirmed cases in 35 of the 36 states (with the federal capital territory inclusive), 249 fatalities, 2385 discharged cases, 48544 laboratory testing, 5710 total active cases, a mortality rate of 0.12 per 100,000 population, and a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 3. It further showed an increased number of confirmed cases in densely populated states. Transmission via contact with infected persons accounted for 23% of a confirmed case. Additionally, 17% (circa) of the tested population were confirmed positive. Conclusion: Causation and spread are attributed to travel and contact risk factors. Early epidemiological patterning occurred along population density and outdoor exposure lines. Aggressive and continuous testing would reveal more cases especially asymptomatic cohorts in the population.