Threats of Climate Change in Arab Gulf Countries

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the changes and trends in the regional climate of the Arab Gulf countries concerning temperatures, rainfall, and water lost through evapotranspiration over the last four decades, specifically for the period 1981-2020. The Climate Research Unit (CRU-TS) dataset provides essential, detailed meteorological information for researching climate change in the Gulf Countries. The CRU-TS dataset, consisting of 45 gridded stations operating at a 0.5-degree interval, was statistically analyzed to identify potential trends in mean annual temperature, rainfall, and PET using the Mann-Kendall statistical tests for confidence limits during the study period. Trend analyses indicate a significant increase in temperature and PET at a 95% confidence level, while rainfall shows an insignificant decrease over time. The findings demonstrate the spatial and temporal variations in the rate of increase in mean annual temperature between decades, with values ranging from 0.36°C for the second decade to 1.03°C for the last decade, with an overall average increase of 0.75 °C/decade during the study period. The rate of decrease in rainfall is 11.77 mm/decade, while the increase in PET is 166.31 mm/decade. The total amount of water lost by PET increased significantly from 7065348.8 m.m³ during the first decade (1981- 1990), to 7220288.6 m.m³ during the last decade (2011 – 2020), which have great effect on moisture content, vegetation growth and land degradation, The increase in the value of PET over time is due to the rise in mean annual temperature and vegetation activities, which provide more reliable water to the atmosphere.