Statistical Assessment of Rainfall Trends, Variability and Drought Vulnerability in Haryana, India (1980-2024)

Abstract

Rainfall variability and drought occurrence pose significant challenges to water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods in semi-arid regions of India. This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of rainfall and drought across Haryana using long-term district-level rainfall data for the period 1981–2024. Mean annual rainfall, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis were employed to assess rainfall magnitude, variability, and distributional behaviour. Long-term trends were analysed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while drought characteristics were evaluated using the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12). The results reveal a distinct east–west and north-east to south-west rainfall gradient, with the highest mean annual rainfall recorded in Yamunanagar (1095 mm), Panchkula (1077 mm), and Ambala (949 mm), while the western districts remain comparatively drier. Rainfall variability shows marked spatial heterogeneity, with relatively more stable rainfall regimes in the wetter north-eastern districts and moderate to high variability across several central, western, and southern districts. Trend analysis indicates predominantly increasing but statistically non-significant rainfall trends across most districts, including Yamunanagar, Panchkula, Ambala, Karnal, and Kurukshetra, whereas only a few western and southern districts show significant increases. SPI-based analysis demonstrates that mild droughts are frequent throughout Haryana, while moderate to extreme droughts are more concentrated in the drought-prone western districts such as Sirsa, Fatehabad, and Hisar. The findings suggest that spatial variability and rainfall distribution characteristics, rather than long-term trends alone, are the primary determinants of drought vulnerability, underscoring the need for district-specific climate adaptation and water-management strategies under increasing climatic uncertainty.