Spatial and Temporal Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Data in Malwa Region of Kshipra River Basin, India

Abstract

This study investigated trends in climatic variables, such as rainfall and temperature (mean, maximum, and minimum), on both annual and seasonal basis (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter) at four stations viz. Mahidpur, Alot, Dewas, and Indore in the Kshipra River basin, India. Using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, trends were analyzed for data from 1980 to 2012. The analysis revealed statistically significant positive trends in maximum, minimum, and average temperatures on both annual and winter scales across all stations. Additionally, a significant positive trend in average temperature was observed in the post-monsoon season, except at Alot station. The annual trend magnitude for average temperature (Tavg) ranged from 0.020°C/year (Indore) to 0.024°C/year (Mahidpur). Rainfall trends on an annual scale showed a non-significant increase at Indore and Alot, while Mahidpur and Dewas exhibited a decreasing trend. Over the 32 year period, 2000 and 1993 were identified as breakpoint years for rainfall and temperature, respectively. From 1993 to 2012, annual minimum, maximum, and average temperatures increased by approximately 1.5%. Findings of this study can be used as a valuable information for water resource and crop planning, policy making and preparation of contingency plans.