Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trend of Kagina River Catchment, India

Abstract

Change poses a significant challenge, causing notable variations in temperature and precipitation patterns worldwide. This study analyzes the rainfall and temperature trends over the Kagina river catchment in India for a 42-year period (1981–2022) to assess the spatial and temporal impacts of climate change in the region. Changes in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall and temperature patterns were investigated using statistical analysis and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The analysis revealed that annual rainfall in the catchment averaged 863.25 mm, with a minimum of 501.62 mm and a maximum of 1425.71 mm. While most months exhibited weak to moderate trends, only the post-monsoon season showed a statistically significant increasing trend (τ=0.213, p=0.049). Annual rainfall exhibited a weak positive trend (τ=0.108, p=0.319) but was not statistically significant. Temperature analysis indicated a significant rise in maximum temperature (Tmax) during January, August, November, December, the post-monsoon season and annually. Minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a significant increasing trend in August and annually. Overall, Tmax exhibited more pronounced and frequent significant trends compared to Tmin. These findings highlight the effects of climate variability in the Kagina River Catchment and emphasize the need for sustainable water resource management and agricultural adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.