Simulation Study of H1N1 Transmission through Immigrants and Vaccination

Abstract

H1N1 influenza, is a disease caused by the Type A strain of negative-sense single stranded RNA virus which has unique characteristics of reassortment making it different and difficult to control. Due to the unique nature of the virus, the constant globalization of the international population, and the lack of effective immunization, this virus is a great threat to public health. There is only limited data available on impacts of immigrants on H1N1 transmission. So, there is real need to study impacts of immigrants on H1N1 transmission as well as vaccination. We have studied a mathematical model for simulation study of H1N1 transmission through immigrants and vaccination. The class of susceptible people is divided in two types: vaccinated immigrants and non-vaccinated immigrants. The medications and hospitalizations are the remedial steps to get cured. The rate at which people get medicated or hospitalized is analyzed using SEIR model. The system of non-linear ordinary differential equation is formulated for the given model and the reproduction number is then calculated using next generation matrix method which indicates the recovery rate of an individual stability. Numerical simulations are then carried out. Our study showed that increasing the awareness among the general population, immigrants about clinical features and modes of transmission of H1N1 and improving the vaccination rate helps decrease the transmission of H1N1.