Skip to content
Research Article Open access CC BY 3.0

Simulation and Validation of Cisco Habitat in Minnesota Lakes Using the Lethal-Niche-Boundary Curve

Xing Fang, Liping Jiang, Peter C. Jacobson, Nancy Z. Fang

International Journal of Environment and Climate Change · pp. 444–470 · Published 17 Nov 2014

10.9734/BJECC/2014/11482

Abstract

Fish survival in lakes is strongly influenced by water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration. A one-dimensional (vertical) lake water quality model MINLAKE 2012 was calibrated in 23 Minnesota lakes and used to simulate daily water temperature and DO concentrations in 36 representative lake types under past (1992–2008) climate conditions and a future climate scenario (MIROC 3.2). The 36 representative Minnesota lake types were developed based on three maximum depths (Hmax = 4, 13, and 24 m), three surface areas (As = 0.2, 1.7, 10 km2), and four Secchi depths (SD = 1.2, 2.5, 4.5, and 7 m, from eutrophic to oligotrophic lake). A fish habitat model using the lethal-niche-boundary curve of adult cisco (Coregnous artedi, a cold-water fish species) was then developed to evaluate cisco oxythermal habitat and survival in Minnesota lakes.The fish habitat model was validated in the 23 Minnesota lakes of which 18 had cisco mortality while 5 had no cisco mortality in the unusually warm summer of 2006. Cisco lethal and habitable conditions in the 23 lakes simulated by the model had anoverall good agreement with observations in 2006. After model validation, cisco lethal days in the 36 lake types were modeled using simulated daily temperature and DO profiles from MINLAKE2012. Polymictic shallow lakes with lake geometry ratio As0.25/Hmax> 5.2 m-0.5 were simulated to typically not support cisco oxythermal habitat under past climate conditions and the future climate scenario. Medium-depth lakes are projected to be most vulnerable to climate warming with most increase in the number of years with cisco kill (average increase 13 years out of 17 simulation years). Strongly stratified mesotrophic and oligotrophic deep lakes are possible to support cisco habitat under both past and future climate conditions, and these deep lakes are good candidates for cisco refuge lakes that should be protected against water quality deteriorations.

Fish habitat model cisco lake water quality model climate change.

References (41)

  1. 1 River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles [DOI]
  2. 2 A trophic state index for lakes1 [DOI]
  3. 3 A treatise on limnology.
  4. 4 The Effect of Environmental Factors on the Physiology of Fish [DOI]
  5. 5 Temperature as an Ecological Resource [DOI]
  6. 6 The Canadian Climate Centre Second-Generation General Circulation Model and Its Equilibrium Climate [DOI]
  7. 7 K-1 Coupled GCM (MIROC) Description
  8. 8 Effects of Constant Temperatures and Diel Temperature Fluctuations on Specific Growth and Mortality Rates and Yield of Juvenile Rainbow Trout, Salmo gairdneri [DOI]
  9. 9 Potential effects of global climate change on small north‐temperate lakes: Physics, fish, and plankton [DOI]
  10. 10 Measures of Optimal Thermal Habitat and Their Relationship to Yields for Four Commercial Fish Species [DOI]
  11. 11 Influence of Lake Surface Area and Depth Upon Thermal Stratification and the Depth of the Summer Thermocline [DOI]
  12. 12 A Field Information-based System for Estimating Fish Temperature Tolerances [DOI]
  13. 13 Simulations of climate effects on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and ice and snow covers in lakes of the contiguous U.S. under past and future climate scenarios [DOI]
  14. 14 Simulated long term temperature and dissolved oxygen characteristics of lakes in the north‐central United States and associated fish habitat limits [DOI]
  15. 15 Potential Changes in the Thermal Habitat of Great Lakes Fish after Global Climate Warming [DOI]
  16. 16 Regional water temperature characteristics of lakes subjected to climate change [DOI]
  17. 17 Lake Water Temperature Simulation Model [DOI]
  18. 18 Simulated Fish Habitat Changes in North American Lakes in Response to Projected Climate Warming [DOI]
  19. 19 Dissolved oxygen model for regional lake analysis [DOI]
  20. 20 Effects of Climate Warming on Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations in Lake Erie [DOI]
  21. 21 General patterns in the seasonal development of chlorophyll a for temperate lakes [DOI]
  22. 22 Long-term lake water temperature and ice cover simulations/measurements [DOI]
  23. 23 Effects of Temperature on Growth and Survival of Young Brook Trout, Salvelinus fontinalis [DOI]
  24. 24 Temperature-Oxygen Habitat for Freshwater and Coastal Striped Bass in a Changing Climate [DOI]
  25. 25 Coldwater fish oxythermal habitat in Minnesota lakes: influence of total phosphorus, July air temperature, and relative depth [DOI]
  26. 26 Kinetics of oxygenic photosynthesis in planktonic algae [DOI]
  27. 27 Dynamics of heat exchange between sediment and water in a lake [DOI]
  28. 28 Simulation of thermal/dissolved oxygen habitat for fishes in lakes under different climate scenarios [DOI]
  29. 29 Field Estimation of a Lethal Oxythermal Niche Boundary for Adult Ciscoes in Minnesota Lakes [DOI]
  30. 30 Simulated climate change effects on dissolved oxygen characteristics in ice-covered lakes [DOI]
  31. 31 Identifying Cisco Refuge Lakes in Minnesota under Future Climate Scenarios [DOI]
  32. 32 Simulations of water quality and oxythermal cisco habitat in Minnesota lakes under past and future climate scenarios [DOI]
  33. 33 Temperature Dynamics in Dimictic Lakes [DOI]
  34. 34 Predicting the location of optimal habitat boundaries for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Canadian Shield lakes [DOI]
  35. 35 Oxythermal habitat parameters and identifying cisco refuge lakes in Minnesota under future climate scenarios using variable benchmark periods [DOI]
  36. 36 An ecological study of southern Wisconsin fishes; the brook silversides (Labidesthes sicculus) and the cisco (Leucichthys artedi) in their relations to the region, [DOI]
  37. 37 Climate change 2001: synthesis report [DOI]
  38. 38 Development and Validation of the Water Quality Model MINLAKE96 with Winter Data
  39. 39 A Methodology to Estimate Global Climate Change Impacts on Lake and Stream Environmental Conditions and Fishery Resources with Application to Minnesota
  40. 40 Simulations of Cisco Fish Habitat in Minnesota Lakes under Future Climate Scenarios
  41. 41 Characteristics of Minnesota's Cisco Lakes

Cited by 19

Projected Impacts of Climatic Changes on Cisco Oxythermal Habitat in Minnesota Lakes and Management Strategies

Xing Fang, Heinz G. Stefan, Liping Jiang · Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation · 2016

Understanding Effects of Climate Change and Eutrophication on Fish Habitat in Glacial Lakes of the Midwest States and Management Strategies

Xing Fang, Peter C. Jacobson, Liping Jiang · Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation · 2022

Understanding Effects of Climate Change and Eutrophication on Fish Habitat in Glacial Lakes of the Midwest States and Management Strategies

Xing Fang, Peter C. Jacobson, Liping Jiang · Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation · 2025

Showing 10 of 19 known citations — external sources report more than can currently be individually listed.

Article metrics

Real usage data collected on this platform.

83

Page views

0

PDF downloads

69

Outbound clicks

19

Citations

Views over time

Views by country

Approximate, from request IP at view time — not citizenship or institution. Countries with fewer than 5 views are grouped as "Other".

Traffic sources

Referring site, by host.

Views and downloads exclude known bots/crawlers. Citations combines this platform's own DOI-resolved index with each external source's own reported total — see Cited by above for individually listed citing works. Last refreshed 0 seconds ago.