Evolution of Energy Strategies in Turkey: Forecasts by Time Series

Abstract

As a developing country with over 70% external dependence on energy, there is an increasing demand for electricity in Turkey. In this study, energy resources strategies in Turkey have been investigated and the historical development of its energy usage was summarised. Turkey's energy demand has increased as a result of industrial development and the various energy sources have been selected in different periods to meet this need. In all periods, fossil fuels have taken the lead in energy production. Although investments in renewable and nuclear energy sources have increased, fossil energy sources will not be replaced in the near future. The future fossil fuel production, the electricity production and the greenhouse emissions have been calculated and interpreted by time series (ARIMA), statistically. The forecasts mainly show that natural gas based electricity generation will decrease to 9.3% and renewable energy based electricity generation will increase to 25.6% in the next decade. It is obvious that the fossil fuels based greenhouse emissions will be 375.61 million tons CO2 equivalent in 2026 and the largest share of this emission will be derived from the natural gas by 66.3 billion m3.