Rainfall Variability in the Central Plain Zone of Uttar Pradesh, India

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate the long-term variability and trends in monsoonal rainfall across the Central Plain Zone of Uttar Pradesh, with a focus on its impact on agricultural sustainability. A retrospective analysis was conducted using 50 years of historical rainfall data (1975–2024) sourced from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Chandra Shekhar Azad University of Agriculture and Technology, Kanpur. This study analyzed annual rainfall records for the Kanpur and Lucknow districts using a combination of statistical methods. These included calculating average rainfall, identifying years with unusually high or low rainfall, and examining long-term trends across decades. To trace significant shifts in rainfall patterns, linear regression and the Mann-Kendall trend test were applied. In Kanpur, the average annual rainfall was found to be 897.90 mm, with the highest recorded in 1980 (1982.3 mm) and the lowest in 1979 (451.8 mm). In comparison, Lucknow mean annual rainfall stood at 881.21 mm, with its wettest year also in 1980 (1721.5 mm) and the driest in 1987 (490.7 mm). Both districts displayed notable year-to-year and decadal fluctuations. While there were brief periods of recovery, the overall trend pointed to a steady decline in rainfall over time. This increasing variability in monsoon behavior presents serious concerns for regions dependent on rain fed agriculture. The findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive planning and robust water resource strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of agriculture in the Central Plain Zone.