Quantifying Uncertainties in the Modelled Estimates of Extreme Precipitation Events at Upper Thames River Basin
Tarana A. Solaiman, Slobodan P. Simonovic, Donald H. Burn
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change · pp. 180–215 · Published 24 Jul 2012
10.9734/BJECC/2012/1505Abstract
Assessment of climate change impact on hydrology at watershed scale incorporates downscaling of global scale climatic variables into local scale hydrologic variables and evaluation of future hydrologic extremes. The climatological inputs obtained from several global climate models suffer the limitations due to incomplete knowledge arising from the inherent physical, chemical processes and the parameterization of the model structure. Downscaled output from a single AOGCM with a single emission scenario represents only one of all possible future climate realizations; averaging outputs from multiple AOGCMs might underestimate the extent of future changes in the intensity and frequency of climatological variables. These available methods, thus cannot be representative of the full extent of climate change. Present research, therefore addresses two major questions: (i) should climate research adopt equal weights from AOGCM outputs to generate future climate?; and (ii) what is the probability of the future extreme events to be more severe? This paper explores the methods available for quantifying uncertainties from the AOGCM outputs and provides an extensive investigation of the nonparametric kernel estimator based on choice of bandwidths for investigating the severity of extreme precipitation events over the next century. The Sheather-Jones plug-in kernel estimate appears to be a major improvement over the parametric methods with known distribution. Results indicate increased probabilities for higher intensities and frequencies of events. The applied methodology is flexible and can be adapted to any uncertainty estimation studies with unknown densities. The presented research is expected to broaden our existing knowledge on the nature of the extreme precipitation events and the propagation and quantification of uncertainties arising from the global climate models and emission scenarios.
References (121)
- 1 Special report on emissions scenarios
- 2 Remarks on Some Nonparametric Estimates of a Density Function [DOI]
- 3 Bayesian Calibration of Computer Models [DOI]
- 4 Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle [DOI]
- 5 A Reliable Data-Based Bandwidth Selection Method for Kernel Density Estimation [DOI]
- 6 The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models [DOI]
- 7 An Alternative Method of Cross-Validation for the Smoothing of Density Estimates [DOI]
- 8 A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low‐flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK [DOI]
- 9 USE OF A STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS [DOI]
- 10 Empirical Choice of Histograms and Kernel Density Estimators
- 11 Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Regional Climate Change: A Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Multimodel Ensembles [DOI]
- 12 Multisite generalization of a daily stochastic precipitation generation model [DOI]
- 13 A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom [DOI]
- 14 Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios [DOI]
- 15 Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and general circulation model relationships [DOI]
- 16 Improving the simulation of extreme precipitation events by stochastic weather generators [DOI]
- 17 Calculating potential evaporation from climate model data: A source of uncertainty for hydrological climate change impacts [DOI]
- 18 Predicting climate change impacts on water resources in the tropical Andes: Effects of GCM uncertainty [DOI]
- 19 Statistical Characteristics of Daily Precipitation: Comparisons of Gridded and Point Datasets [DOI]
- 20 Representing uncertainties in climate change scenarios: A Monte Carlo approach [DOI]
- 21 Seasonal Hydroclimate Variability over North America in Global and Regional Reanalyses and AMIP Simulations: Varied Representation [DOI]
- 22 A data-based algorithm for choosing the window width when estimating the density at a point [DOI]
- 23 Optimization Using Differential Evolution
- 24 Updated Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for the City of London under the Changing Climate
- 25 Simulation of extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin by nearest-neighbour resampling [DOI]
- 26 Impacts of global climate change in a hydrologically vulnerable region: challenges to South African hydrologists [DOI]
- 27 Role of Remote Sensing in Disaster Management
- 28 Calibration, Verification and Sensitivity Analysis of the HEC-HMS Hydrologic Model
- 29 Evaluation of the rainfall component of a weather generator for climate impact studies [DOI]
- 30 Hydrologic Model Selection for the CFCAS Project: Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions
- 31 A framework for developing high‐resolution multi‐model climate projections: 21st century scenarios for the UK [DOI]
- 32 An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic System: Model Description and Model Use Guide
- 33 Fuzzy Set Ranking Methods and Multiple Expert Decision Making
- 34 Physical, Economical, Infrastructural and Social Flood Risk -- Vulnerability Analyses in GIS
- 35 New Fuzzy Performance Indices for Reliability Analysis of Water Supply Systems
- 36 Selection of Calibration and Verification Data for the HEC-HMS Hydrologic Model
- 37 Assessments of the reliability of NCEP circulation data and relationships with surface climate by direct comparisons with station based data [DOI]
- 38 Scientific Uncertainties, Public Policy, and Global Warming [DOI]
- 39 Generation of Synthetic Design Storms for the Upper Thames River Basin
- 40 Conflict Resolution Support System: A Software for the Resolution of Conflicts in Water Resource Management
- 41 Integrated Reservoir Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts in the Upper Thames River Basin
- 42 Dynamic Feedback Coupling of Continuous Hydrologic and Socio-Economic Model Components of the Upper Thames River Basin
- 43 City of London: Vulnerability of Infrastructure to Climate Change. Background Report #2: Hydraulic Modeling and Floodplain Mapping
- 44 A Spatial Fuzzy Compromise Approach for Flood Disaster Management
- 45 Inverse Drought Risk Modelling of the Upper Thames River Basin
- 46 A Fuzzy Set Theory Based Methodology for Analysis of Uncertainties in Stage-Discharge Measurements and Rating Curve
- 47 Assessment of the Impact of Climate Variability and Change on the Reliability, Resiliency and Vulnerability of Complex Flood Protection Systems
- 48 A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT
- 49 Assessment of Climatic Vulnerability in the Upper Thames River Basin: Part 2
- 50 Use of an Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-economic-climatic System in Policy Development
- 51 Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis [DOI]
- 52 North American Regional Reanalysis [DOI]
- 53 The Changing Character of Precipitation [DOI]
- 54 Robust Tests for the Equality of Variances [DOI]
- 55 Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs [DOI]
- 56 Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations [DOI]
- 57 Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation [DOI]
- 58 A Brief Survey of Bandwidth Selection for Density Estimation [DOI]
- 59 Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century [DOI]
- 60 The Analog Method as a Simple Statistical Downscaling Technique: Comparison with More Complicated Methods [DOI]
- 61 Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods [DOI]
- 62 Biased and Unbiased Cross-Validation in Density Estimation [DOI]
- 63 Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models [DOI]
- 64 How Often Does It Rain? [DOI]
- 65 A Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model for Precipitation Occurrence [DOI]
- 66 Changes in Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices for Canada over the Twentieth Century [DOI]
- 67 Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed [DOI]
- 68 Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments [DOI]
- 69 Changes in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions [DOI]
- 70 Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: I. Theoretical investigation / Statistiques de valeurs extrêmes et estimation de précipitations extrêmes: I. Recherche théorique [DOI]
- 71 Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method [DOI]
- 72 Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions [DOI]
- 73 Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models [DOI]
- 74 Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations [DOI]
- 75 The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts [DOI]
- 76 Nonparametric methods for modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty in drought assessment [DOI]
- 77 Simulating climate change scenarios using an improved K-nearest neighbor model [DOI]
- 78 Lower bounds for bandwidth selection in density estimation [DOI]
- 79 Investigation of the Summer Climate of the Contiguous United States and Mexico Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Part II: Model Climate Variability [DOI]
- 80 Oversmoothed Nonparametric Density Estimates [DOI]
- 81 Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin [DOI]
- 82 A Nonparametric Wet/Dry Spell Model for Resampling Daily Precipitation [DOI]
- 83 Efficient stochastic generation of multi-site synthetic precipitation data [DOI]
- 84 An Efficient Stochastic Bayesian Approach to Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation for Climate Model Predictions [DOI]
- 85 Multistage plug—in bandwidth selection for kernel distribution function estimates [DOI]
- 86 Snowmelt contribution to discharge from a large mountainous catchment in subarctic Canada [DOI]
- 87 Development of rainfall intensity duration frequency curves for the City of London under the changing climate
- 88 Use of the North American Regional Reanalysis for Hydrological Modelling in Manitoba [DOI]
- 89 A statistical comparison of the stochastic weather generators WGEN and SIMMETEO [DOI]
- 90 Tentative probabilistic temperature scenarios for northern Europe [DOI]
- 91 State-of-the-Art Report on Systems Analysis Methods for Resolution of Conflicts in Water Resources Management
- 92 Estimation of daily space–time precipitation series for macroscale hydrological modelling [DOI]
- 93 Using WGENK to generate synthetic daily weather data for modelling of agricultural processes [DOI]
- 94 Sensitivity of Hydrologic Systems to Climate Change [DOI]
- 95 A new weather generator based on spectral properties of surface air temperatures [DOI]
- 96 Application of the fuzzy performance measures to the City of London water supply system [DOI]
- 97 Can We Adequately Quantify the Increase/Decrease of Flooding Due to Climate Change? [DOI]
- 98 An evaluation of a general circulation model (GCM) and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for winter precipitation in Greece [DOI]
- 99 Daily Precipitation Grids for South America [DOI]
- 100 Nonparametric Curve Estimation: Methods, Theory, and Applications [DOI]
- 101 Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
- 102 A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies [DOI]
- 103 Stochastic generation of annual, monthly and daily climate data: A review [DOI]
- 104 Statistical Precipitation Downscaling over the Northwestern United States Using Numerically Simulated Precipitation as a Predictor* [DOI]
- 105 The Maximal Smoothing Principle in Density Estimation [DOI]
- 106 A class of stochastic models for relating synoptic atmospheric patterns to regional hydrologic phenomena [DOI]
- 107 Review on Regional Water Resources Assessment Models under Stationary and Changing Climate [DOI]
- 108 Streamflow simulation: A nonparametric approach [DOI]
- 109 Precipitation Scenarios over Iberia: A Comparison between Direct GCM Output and Different Downscaling Techniques [DOI]
- 110 A Probability and Decision-Model Analysis of a Multimodel Ensemble of Climate Change Simulations [DOI]
- 111 A semiparametric multivariate and multisite weather generator [DOI]
- 112 Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models [DOI]
- 113 Nonparametric Kernel Estimation of Flood Frequencies [DOI]
- 114 A Comparative Study of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures over Argentina: NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis versus Station Data [DOI]
- 115 Regional-scale climate prediction from the GISS GCM [DOI]
- 116 a Class of Stochastic Models for Relating Synoptic Atmospheric Patterns to Local Hydrologic Phenomena.
- 117 A General Overview of Multi-objective Multiple- participant Decision Making for Flood Management
- 118 Flood Frequency Analysis Using Copula with Mixed Marginal Distributions
- 119 Rainfall generator for the Rine basin: multi-site simulation of daily weather variables by nearest-neighbour resampling
- 120 Characterizing the uncertainty of climate change projections using hierarchical models [DOI]
- 121 Methods for statistical downscaling of GCM simulations
Cited by 6
Milan Stojkovic, Slobodan P. Simonovic · Water Resources Management · 2019
Showing 1 of 6 known citations — external sources report more than can currently be individually listed.
Related research
- Modeling Climate Change Projections for Ferozpur Sub-catchment of Jhelum Sub-basin of Kashmir Valley — shares topic coverage
- Climate Change Impacts on Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment-Adaptation and Mitigation Options in Marine Hot Spots in Kerala, India — shares topic coverage
- Measuring Climate Change Vulnerability and its Adaptive Capacity: Policies and Planning for Bangladesh — shares topic coverage
- Life Cycle Analysis of Green Roof Implemented in a Global South Low-income Country — shares topic coverage
- An Analysis of Climate Forcings from the Central England Temperature (CET) Record — shares topic coverage
Article metrics
Real usage data collected on this platform.
91
Page views
0
PDF downloads
52
Outbound clicks
6
Citations
Views over time
Views by country
Approximate, from request IP at view time — not citizenship or institution. Countries with fewer than 5 views are grouped as "Other".
Traffic sources
Referring site, by host.
Views and downloads exclude known bots/crawlers. Citations combines this platform's own DOI-resolved index with each external source's own reported total — see Cited by above for individually listed citing works. Last refreshed 0 seconds ago.