Assessment of Various Policy Regimes towards Agricultural Export Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

The performance of the agricultural export in Nigeria has been decimally, declining from 75 percent in 1960 to 1.63 percent in 2010. In response to this scenario, this study assessed the performance of various policy regimes that managed the resources of Nigeria from 1961 to 2010. This is with the goal of identifying the regime that is the best in growing the agricultural export sector for recommendation. The study estimated the exponential trend of the agricultural export and analyzed such growth under different policy regimes. Time series data were used. Data analysis involved the use of exponential or log-linear trend. The result of the trend analysis showed that Nigeria’s agricultural export did not fare well under the policy regimes except during structural adjustment (1986 – 1994) and liberalization (1995 – 2010) where acceleration was recorded in the short run. However, structural adjustment policy regime manifested positive characteristics which indicated that it has the best structure, among other regimes, in growing Nigerian agricultural export. The study advocated for policy of accelerated investment in public goods that supports agricultural production and marketing. This policy could be made possible through instituting Agricultural Trust Fund (akin to Educational Trust Fund) where certain percentage of proceeds from oil is saved towards agricultural development. This can be used to fund human capital development in agriculture, rural infrastructure, irrigation and power supply. The study further recommended a revisit of the Bretton Woods supported Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) with caution.