Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Palm Oil Production in Côte d'Ivoire

Abstract

The effects of climate change scenarios were analyzed for the central and southern oil palm production regions of Côte d'Ivoire. Temperature and precipitation variables were forecast for the periods 2021-2050 and 2041-2070, based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, in comparison to the 1980-2010 reference period. The results indicated that, besides a considerable frequency of hot days and water scarcity, potentially threatening oil palm production in marginal sections of the Centre region, the climatic parameters suggest standard production conditions for oil palm in these two regions. The risks linked to diseases and pests could be similar or possibly mitigated. In the southern region, climatic variations seem to have no effect on oil palm production. To enhance their resilience, it is crucial to educate oil palm producers on the significance of utilizing drought-resistant planting material, adhering to good agricultural practices and implementing agroforestry techniques. Enhancing producers' access to meteorological information would also be essential.