Skip to content
Research Article Open access CC BY 4.0

Projected Changes in the Dynamics of Flood Hazard in the Grand River Basin, Canada

Abhishek Gaur, Slobodan P. Simonovic

International Journal of Environment and Climate Change · pp. 37–51 · Published 17 Apr 2015

10.9734/BJECC/2015/17705

Abstract

In this study future flooding frequencies have been estimated for the Grand River catchment located in south-western Ontario, Canada. Historical and future climatic projections made by fifteen Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-3 climate models are bias-corrected and downscaled before they are used to obtain mid- and end of 21st century streamflow projections. By comparing the future projected and historically observed precipitation and temperature records it is found that the mean and extreme temperature events will intensify in future across the catchment. The increase is more drastic in the case of extreme events than the mean events. The sign of change in future precipitation is uncertain. Further flow extremes are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency in future across the catchment. The confidence in the projection is more for low return period (<10 years) extreme events than higher return period (10-100 years) events. It can be expected that increases in temperature will play a dominant role in increasing the magnitude of low return period flooding events while precipitation seems to play an important role in shaping the high return period events.

Flooding climate change Grand River Brantford.

References (37)

  1. 1 An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design [DOI]
  2. 2 Summary for Policymakers
  3. 3 Global flood risk under climate change [DOI]
  4. 4 THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research [DOI]
  5. 5 Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe [DOI]
  6. 6 Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century [DOI]
  7. 7 Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling [DOI]
  8. 8 Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming [DOI]
  9. 9 Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows [DOI]
  10. 10 Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate [DOI]
  11. 11 Characteristics of Daily and Extreme Temperatures over Canada [DOI]
  12. 12 How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe? [DOI]
  13. 13 Changes in Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices for Canada over the Twentieth Century [DOI]
  14. 14 Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment [DOI]
  15. 15 Grouped Response Units for Distributed Hydrologic Modeling [DOI]
  16. 16 Decreasing river discharge in northern Canada [DOI]
  17. 17 A time series tool to support the multi-criteria performance evaluation of rainfall-runoff models [DOI]
  18. 18 Development of the MESH modelling system for hydrological ensemble forecasting of the Laurentian Great Lakes at the regional scale [DOI]
  19. 19 Flood hazard in Europe in an ensemble of regional climate scenarios [DOI]
  20. 20 Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada [DOI]
  21. 21 Detection of trends in hydrological extremes for Canadian watersheds [DOI]
  22. 22 Simulating low‐probability peak discharges for the Rhine basin using resampled climate modeling data [DOI]
  23. 23 Improving pan-European hydrological simulation of extreme events through statistical bias correction of RCM-driven climate simulations [DOI]
  24. 24 Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge and groundwater in a headwater catchment of the Upper Nile Basin, Uganda [DOI]
  25. 25 An Assessment of Changes in Winter Cold and Warm Spells over Canada [DOI]
  26. 26 Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions/Extrêmes hydrologiques dans un basin versant du sud-ouest de l'Ontario sous conditions climatiques futures [DOI]
  27. 27 Climate change impact on the hydrology of Spencer Creek watershed in Southern Ontario, Canada [DOI]
  28. 28 Multi-site, multivariate weather generator using maximum entropy bootstrap [DOI]
  29. 29 AN INFILTRATION EQUATION WITH PHYSICAL SIGNIFICANCE [DOI]
  30. 30 Modelling climate change impacts in the Peace and Athabasca catchment and delta: I—hydrological model application [DOI]
  31. 31 Validation of the Hydrological Processes in a Hydrological Model [DOI]
  32. 32 Case Study: Watershed Modeling with Distributed Weather Model Data [DOI]
  33. 33 Assessment of Uncertainty in Flood Flows under Climate Change Impacts in the Upper Thames River Basin, Canada [DOI]
  34. 34 A groundwater separation study in boreal wetland terrain: the WATFLOOD hydrological model compared with stable isotope tracers [DOI]
  35. 35 Basin-Scale Assessment of Operational Base Flow Separation Methods [DOI]
  36. 36 Mesoscale Hydrological Model Validation and Verification using Stable Water Isotopes: The isoWATFLOOD Model
  37. 37 Implications of Lateral Flow Generation on Land-Surface Scheme Fluxes

Cited by 8

Enhancing Flood Risk Management: A Comparative Study of Regional Frequency Models in the Upper Meghna River, Bangladesh

Md. Touhidul Islam, Nusrat Jahan, Nilima Das, Md. Asibur Rahman Abir, Abdullah Al Ferdaus, M. Shafiul Islam, Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, A.K.M. Adham · International Journal of Environment and Climate Change · 2024

Identification of flood seasonality and drivers across Canada

Jitendra Singh, Subimal Ghosh, S. Simonovic · Hydrological Processes · 2021

Flooding Related Consequences of Climate Change on Canadian Cities and Flow Regulation Infrastructure

Ayushi Gaur, A. Gaur, Dai Yamazaki · Water · 2019

A Physical Scaling Method to Incorporate Regional Physical Characteristics in Future Climatic and Hydrologic Predictions

A. Gaur · 2016

Flood Risk Management Evaluation and Climate Change Adaptation in Wadi Derna NE Libya

Nawal Alfarrah, Van de Moortel Ivo, Kristine Walraevens · Water Science and Technology Library · 2025

Showing 5 of 8 known citations — external sources report more than can currently be individually listed.

Related research

Article metrics

Real usage data collected on this platform.

90

Page views

0

PDF downloads

47

Outbound clicks

8

Citations

Views over time

Views by country

Approximate, from request IP at view time — not citizenship or institution. Countries with fewer than 5 views are grouped as "Other".

Traffic sources

Referring site, by host.

Views and downloads exclude known bots/crawlers. Citations combines this platform's own DOI-resolved index with each external source's own reported total — see Cited by above for individually listed citing works. Last refreshed 0 seconds ago.