Production Dynamics and Instability in Tropical Fruits: Evidence from India

Abstract

Mango, guava and mangosteen are important tropical fruits consumed in fresh and processed forms in India and other tropical regions. This study analysed the long-term dynamics of area, production and yield of tropical fruits in India, with particular reference to mango, guava and mangosteen, using secondary data for 1975–2022 obtained from FAOSTAT. The analysis applied the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) and a linear trend model to examine growth, variability and forecasted changes up to 2030. The results showed that the cultivated area increased from 886,200 ha in 1975 to 2,704,000 ha in 2022, while production rose from 7.30 million tonnes to 26.30 million tonnes over the same period. The CAGR was positive for area (2.35 per cent), yield (0.35 per cent) and production (2.71 per cent), indicating that production growth was mainly associated with area expansion rather than substantial yield improvement. The CDVI values for area, yield and production were 12.55, 18.31 and 20.15 per cent, respectively, showing comparatively higher instability in production than in area and yield. Forecasts for 2023–2030 indicated that area and production may continue to increase, reaching 2,984,008 ha and 23.68 million tonnes by 2030, whereas yield may decline slightly to 7,409.10 kg/ha. Overall, the results indicate that the sector has expanded steadily, but the limited gain in productivity remains a concern for sustained output growth. These findings suggest that future growth in tropical fruit production requires greater emphasis on productivity improvement through improved cultivars, better crop management, integrated pest and disease control, and climate-resilient practices.