Price Trends and Comparative Analysis of Retail Milk Sale Prices among Gujarat Co-operative Dairies

Abstract

Retail milk pricing is an important determinant of consumer affordability, co-operative competitiveness, and dairy market performance in Gujarat, a major milk-producing state in India. Using five years (2020–21 to 2024–25) of monthly secondary retail price data from 18 district co-operative dairies across up to eight milk categories, this study examines year-wise and month-wise price trends, inter-dairy price differences, and milk-category price variations. After data screening, 3,536 valid price observations from 16 dairies with usable data were analysed using descriptive statistical techniques, including the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), price revision frequency, and comparative price ranking; the analysis is descriptive in nature and does not involve inferential analysis or significance testing. The pooled mean retail milk price rose from ₹43.54 per litre in 2020–21 to ₹54.19 per litre in 2024–25, an increase of 24.45 per cent (CAGR 5.62 per cent). Price revisions were infrequent and concentrated in June–August and March, coinciding with seasonal procurement conditions. Vadodara, Ahmedabad, Rajkot, and Banaskantha maintained comparatively higher prices throughout the period, while Sabarkantha, Bhavnagar, Junagadh, and Amreli remained comparatively lower-priced. Prices across milk categories followed the expected FSSAI fat-content hierarchy, with Skimmed Milk being the least expensive and Whole/Full Cream Milk the most expensive. These findings indicate that district co-operative dairies maintain distinct pricing strategies despite operating under a common federation and brand and offer practical insights for dairy co-operatives, policymakers and researchers seeking to improve pricing transparency and understand retail milk price dynamics.