Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of Long-spurred Habenaria in Peninsular India

Abstract

Endemic plant species are increasingly at risk due to global climate change and anthropogenic pressures, making the prediction of suitable habitats essential for their conservation. Habenaria longicorniculata is an endemic terrestrial orchid species of Peninsular India, currently facing threats due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Identifying suitable habitats for these species is crucial for effective conservation planning. In this study, species distribution modeling was performed using MaxEnt to assess the current and future habitat suitability of H. longicorniculata under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). 141 occurrence records were used for the prediction model. The model revealed high predictive accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.927 (±0.037). Results indicate a significant reduction in suitable habitat, projected to decline by 44.41% to 74.92% under future climate scenarios. Future distributions will likely become restricted to limited regions in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. The Jackknife test revealed that bioclimatic variables Bio5 (max temperature of the warmest month) and Bio8 (mean temperature of the wettest quarter) are the most influential in determining species distribution. Overall, the study makes a significant contribution to species conservation and provides valuable input for future research and decision-making.