A Simple Method to Forecast Future Bed Requirements: A Pragmatic Alternative to Queuing Theory
Neeraj Beeknoo, Rodney P. Jones
Journal of Advances in Medicine and Medical Research · pp. 1–20 · Published 17 Oct 2016
10.9734/BJMMR/2016/29518Abstract
Aims: To review the current state of hospital bed planning, and to develop a simple tool to estimate short-term future bed requirements using historical bed occupancy data. Study Design: Analysis of daily bed occupancy between January 2008 and October 2015. Synthesis of trends into a method for forecasting bed numbers for each day of the year. Place and Duration of Study: Daily occupied bed statistics for King’s College University Hospital, a large London Teaching Hospital having 1,600 beds. Methodology: An eight-year time-series of daily midnight bed occupancy covering elective, emergency and transfer admissions has been used to estimate the number of beds required to deliver a delay-free hospital. Results: In this large 1,600 bed hospital it is estimated that 100 extra beds (a 6.3% increase) are required to deliver delay free admissions, i.e. no delays to admission from the emergency department or delays due to cancelled elective operations. Conclusion: The analysis reveals that far higher flexibility is required in staffing levels than is currently available. Potential strategies are discussed to address this issue.
Cited by 19
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