Quarantine vs Social Consciousness: A Prediction to Control COVID-19 Infection

Abstract

Background: The world is now in an emergency of preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19. After the infection was first reported in December 2019, almost every country did not pay attention to this highly contaminated disease and failed to react swiftly. Now the whole planet is in an vulnerable state, resulting to increase the mortality rate and facing difficulties in all socio-economic aspects. That is why we have the urge to develop an efficient mathematical model (quarantine) based on social consciousness to control the epidemic. Methods: This is a quarantine mathematical model. The outcome of the system is dependent on social consciousness. We have calculated the awareness level by considering various socio-economic factor of each country. In our model, the parameters are Education Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population density, high literacy and stable economy. To maximize the efficiency of the model, it has to be implemented in initial stage. However, strict application of the method in vigorous stage of epidemic will also bring a satisfactory outcome. Results: In Spain, quarantine was effected on March 14, 2020. Spain experienced an increase in reported cases for 13 days of quarantine enforcement and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decrease with small fluctuation. Government ensured the social isolation through quarantine. After imposition of a quarantine on March 9, 2020 in Italy, within 13 days of lock-down, the maximum number of infection started to decrease. Similar results observed in France. Higher social consciousness would decrease the number of infected population dramatically while minimal or lower awareness will do a outburst. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system which yields to reduce the death rate and will ensure social and economic stability.