Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty in Bangladesh Agricultural Sector

Abstract

This study presents three different mathematical models for profit optimization of agricultural products in Bangladesh. The prime focus of the paper has been to develop a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model and analyze this model for two situation of demand uncertainty. Considering demand will be known before and after production. For the mentions of above two cases, we investigate the change of solution applying least demand, maximum perhaps demand and extreme demand scenarios. I think this is real life problem and this analysis will be helpful for all types of agricultural producers.  The proposed MILP model is to maximize the total profit and also to estimate the profitable production locations. The formulated MILP model were solved by A Mathematical Programming Language (AMPL) and results obtained by appropriate solver MINOS. Numerical example with the sensitivity of several parameters has been deployed to validate the models. Results show that maximum perhaps demand scenario gets better solution according to our expected value compare of other two scenarios.